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My 2005 Oscar predictions.

Well here we go...I'm in a bit of a rush, as I'm flying early tomorrow morning, but this has to get done before I leave, so here are my Oscar picks. This is going to be a bit lighter on the commentary than I'd have liked, but there's still a bit in here. Read on for the full picks in all the categories my father and I bet on every year (which is not the full list, but has much more than the top eight categories).

My standard disclaimer: I do not recommend betting money on the Oscars, and I certainly don't advise doing so based on my picks. I do this for fun, and my annual bet with my father is the only one I do. Office pools can be fun, but in my experience, the person who wins is the person who makes their choices completely randomly.

Also: These are the movies I think will win, not who I think should win. I haven't seen virtually all of these movies (in fact, I try not to, as it can affect my choices in negative ways), so please don't tell me how stupid I am for not picking Movie X in category Y because that's the best movie you've seen this year. More often than not, the better movie doesn't win. Accept it and move on.

Okay, let's get to the picks already. I have a plane to catch.

Best Picture: Million Dollar Baby

I'm as surprised by this as you probably are...I was sure that The Aviator was a lock for this, but the buzz in the last few weeks has completely blown past the Miramax entry. This is still not a lock by any means, and if you're looking to go with the safe bet, go with The Aviator. It won the Producer's Guild award, and you'd have to be a complete idiot to go against that. And yet...I am. I haven't lost this category since I went out on a limb for Babe, and I haven't made that mistake ever again. But I'm going with MDB on this one. Just call it a hunch.

Best Director: Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby

I know! This was supposed to be Scorcese's year at long last, but then Clint Eastwood won the DGA, and everything changed. The DGA award has not been a very good indicator over the last few years, but I'm sticking with Million Dollar Baby for this one.

Best Actor: Jaime Foxx, Ray

As close to a lock as we're gonna get this year.

Best Actress: Hillary Swank, Million Dollar Baby

Some people will tell you that Annette Benning is in the running for this award, and it's close between her and Hilary Swank. I just don't see it. Swank is really young to be winning her second Academy Award, and she's still not enough of a star to really open a picture on her own...but if you've seen Million Dollar Baby, you know why she's gonna win. She's just that good.

Best Supporting Actor: Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby

I'd love to see Thomas Haden Church win for Sideways, and I think he's definitely got a chance, but Morgan Freeman is just so respected in Hollywood that he's due for an Oscar, and he's really great in MDB.

Best Supporting Actress: Cate Blanchett, The Aviator

This is definitely a two-way fight to the finish between Virginia Madsen (who I'd like to see win) and Cate Blanchett, but Cate walked away with the SAG award, and she's had more buzz lately.

Best Original Screenplay: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

I thought this movie was just sort of okay, but hey, it won the WGA, and Charlie Kaufman's been nominated twice before with no luck that I think he's gonna get it this time.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Sideways

Sideways is gonna get something, and this is the award it deserves more than any other. It's just a great, great script. And it won the WGA. Million Dollar Baby could swoop in based on its other wins, but I think Sideways is gonna pull this off. If nothing else, MDB is really more of a showcase for its director and actors than its script.

Best Animated Feature: The Incredibles

If Pixar loses to Shrek 2 or Shark Tale, I...I just don't know what I'll do. But it'll be pretty outrageous, I'll say that much.

Best Foreign Language Film: The Sea Inside

I was actually surprised that Javier Bardem wasn't nominated for his role in this movie, which I hear (I haven't seen it) is simply amazing. But regardless of that, this category is either gonna go to The Sea Inside or The Chorus, and I'm going with the former.

Best Documentary Feature: Born Into Brothels

This category has gotten so exciting over the last few years that I just can't believe it...I'm a little disappointed that Metalica: Some Kind of Monster wasn't nominated...I haven't actually seen that (yet) but it really would have shown how far this category has come in recent years. But then you see Tupac: Resurrection, and that serves the same purpose. Super Size Me is the "bigger" film here, but Born Into Brothels has that whole historical document quality that matters the most in this category.

Best Original Score: Harry Potter And The Prisoner Of Azkaban

I must confess...I didn't have time to do the same amount of research I usually do here...I'm going with the safe bet, even though my gut is telling me The Passion will actually win here. I usually listen to all the music and decide based on what sounds more Oscar-like...but I just didn't have the time to do that this year. I'd say go with either John Williams' score for the latest Harry Potter flick, or go with The Passion. It's a tossup.

Best Film Editing: The Aviator

The Aviator won the ACE Eddie award, therefore it's gonna win the Oscar. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

Best Cinematography: A Very Long Engagement

It won the ASC Award, plus it's an absolutely stunningly beautiful movie. House of Flying Daggers could pull ahead here, as could The Passion of the Christ, but I don't see The Aviator here...it just hasn't been getting that kind of buzz.

Best Song: "Accidentally In Love" from Shrek 2

Uh...it's animated, that's always a plus in this category. And it's not foreign...foreign films tend to not do so well (not even animated ones, as last year showed). And everyone in Hollywood hates Andrew Lloyd Webber. Yeah, it's weak reasoning, but I didn't have time to listen to all the songs this year.

Best Costume Design: Lemony Snicket's A Series Of Unfortunate Events

It's probably got the worst title of any nominated film this year, but it won both the Costume Designer's Guild and the Art Director's Guild awards.

Best Art Direction: The Aviator

This is me hedging my bets. I think Lemony Snicket will probably win here, but just in case I'm wrong about The Aviator, I want to attempt to salvage myself with this one concession.

So there you go...my 2005 Oscar picks. If you need a ballot, here's the one my father and I are using (also in PDF form), although keep in mind that it only has the categories listed above. I'll be back with a post-game write-up on Monday, so stay tuned. As the first year in who-knows-how-long that Best Picture is actually being disputed this late in the game, it should be a pretty interesting show.

Posted by jason at February 23, 2005 10:30 PM | TrackBack | Read more: Movies , The Oscars