Best Actor: Not a whole lot of surprises here, but Johnny Depp was a longshot for a nomination. I think this one will come down to Sean Penn vs. Bill Murray, but you never know. Keep an eye on where the buzz shifts to over the coming weeks for this one.
Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins is my early pick, although both Djimon Hounsou and Alec Baldwin stand a good chance here as well.
Best Actress: The one category I had figured was already locked-in has now turned into the one to watch. My initial thoughts (well before the nomination) were for Charlize Theron, and that's still who I'm thinking will win right now. But, Diane Keaton, Naomi Watts and Samantha Morton all have a decent shot at this as well, and Keisha Castle-Hughes could be the shocker of the evening.
Supporting Actress: My early pick is for Ren?e Zellweger, although it's a hard choice in this category, as there's no clear frontrunner.
Animated feature film: How the heck did Brother Bear get nominated here? Anyway, this is a lock for Finding Nemo. Yes, the foreign film won last year, but Spirited Away is a much more mainstream film than the quirky Triplets of Belleville.
Art direction: This usually goes to the period piece, although this year I think this is a lock for LOTR. (Although again, this could change over the coming weeks).
Cinematography: This is one of my favorite categories to watch every year, and this year it's going to be a tough call. City of God stands a great chance here, as does Cold Mountain and Master and Commander.
Directing: This could go to any one of these nominees. I'm expecting Peter Jackson to win at this point, but that is definitely subject to change. Don't rule out Fernando Meirelles for City of God, and certainly don't forget about Sofia Coppola.
Documentary Feature: This is going to be a really close race between two strong contenders: Capturing the Friedmans and The Fog of War. I'm going to have to ruminate on this one for some time before making a call here.
Adapted Screenplay: This early on I'm thinking American Splendor will walk away with this one, but it could go to Return of the King, Mystic River or Seabiscuit.
Original Screenplay: Lost in Translation is definitely the front-runner, but In America and Finding Nemo also stand pretty good chances, too.
Best Picture: It's too early to say which movie will be The Big Oscar Movie this year, but my initial instinct says it'll be Return of the King. But again, we'll have to wait and see where the buzz goes.
So there you have it...today's nominations. Thanks to a severely compressed Oscar season this year, making final picks is going to be very, very hard. Stay tuned for more as we get closer.
Posted by jason at January 27, 2004 11:25 AM
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I will endeavour to put up the same Oscar game I put up last year so that people can submit their predictions and then see afterwards how well they did in relation to their co-workers/friends/spouse/other geeks.
Including BROTHER BEAR in the Oscars is a jaw-dropper. Were there no other animated films released in the last year? I remember seeing a list a few weeks back of movies that were eligible for nomination. I wish I could remember any of the others, because surely there's a better one in the bunch that this abysmal piece of boring trash.
I didn't like BROTHER BEAR. It's the first movie I can ever say I seriously considered walking out on. I didn't, but it was painful.
-Augie
David Poland listed a number of other animated possibilities on his charts on www.moviecitynews.com:
·Finding Nemo
·The Triplets of Belleville
·Brother Bear
·Millenium Actress
·Tokyo Godfathers
·Jester Till (Till Eulenspiegel)
·Looney Tunes: Back in Action
·Rugrats Go Wild!
·Piglet's Big Movie
·The Jungle Book 2
·Pokèmon Heroes
That is a pretty weak list, but Millennium Actress is supposed to be quite good. And I have to believe that one of those has to be better than that Disney drivel.
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